Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2026
Institute for the Study of War••general
Key Points:
- Unconfirmed reports indicate a possible Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Lviv Oblast on January 8, though Ukrainian officials have not confirmed this; explosions were reported and missile alerts issued across Ukraine.
- The Kremlin rejected Western security guarantees for Ukraine tied to ongoing peace agreement talks, labeling proposed multinational force deployments as "foreign intervention" and reiterating demands for Ukrainian neutrality and recognition of Russian territorial claims.
- The US Coast Guard seized the Russian-flagged oil tanker Bella-1, linked to Russian sanctions evasion in the Venezuelan oil sector; Russia denies ownership despite the vessel’s recent re-registration under a Russian company and condemns the seizure.
- Russia continues to form new military units, including artillery brigades and divisions,
