Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Sept. 17, 2026

Key Points:

• Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive in the Lyman direction has successfully disrupted Russian plans to encircle the Fortress Belt, with Ukrainian forces defeating the northern Russian pincer and continuing their advances through effective operational security and drone warfare.
• Ukraine’s intermediate-range strikes have degraded Russian logistics and fuel supplies in Luhansk Oblast, weakening Russian electronic warfare capabilities and enabling Ukrainian tactical drone superiority to support mechanized advances.
• Russian forces are preparing for mechanized assaults in the Dobropillya direction this fall, concentrating armor and drone assets and planning to exploit seasonal weather to attempt breakthroughs and seize Fortress Belt settlements.
• Ukrainian long-range strikes have targeted Russian military assets in Rostov Oblast, including airfields and transport aircraft, aiming to degrade Russian air defense and strike capabilities far from the frontline.
• Russia continues to rely heavily on North Korean military personnel and workers to support its war effort, while Russia’s drone incursions into NATO airspace are viewed by Baltic and Moldovan leaders as deliberate provocations to intimidate countries supporting Ukraine.