Russia’s advance collapses in Ukraine, ‘40,000’ troops killed in June

Key Points:

• Russia aims to capture the remaining 20% of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region by year-end but has missed 14 previous deadlines, with current advances so slow that it would take 14 years to complete at the present rate.
• The Institute for the Study of War reports a significant slowdown in Russian territorial gains in 2026, with net gains drastically reduced due to Ukrainian counterattacks and collapsing Russian advances despite rising casualties.
• Ukraine attributes its recent successes to increased drone production and domestic long-range missile development, enabling effective strikes on Russian logistics and infrastructure, including electricity substations in Crimea.
• Russia has shown openness to US mediation based on previous proposals but rejected Ukrainian ceasefire offers, maintaining ongoing conflict in key frontlines while suffering damage to critical military and industrial targets from Ukrainian strikes.
• Economic pressures are mounting on Russia due to decreased oil export revenues caused by Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure, leading to fuel shortages and logistical challenges despite government reassurances and import efforts.