Russia’s Economy in 2026: More War, Slower Growth and Higher Taxes
The Moscow Times••world
Key Points:
- Russia's economy is expected to transition from "managed cooling" to stagnation by 2026, with GDP growth slowing to around 1% or less in 2025 and 2026, and recovery unlikely before 2027 due to fading wartime spending and ongoing Western sanctions.
- Government spending growth is flattening, with federal expenditures projected to remain nearly flat after inflation adjustments, while high interest rates near 16% aim to curb inflation but also constrain economic growth.
- Budget revenues are falling short amid lower oil prices and sanctions, prompting the government to raise taxes, including increasing VAT from 20% to 22% and expanding the VAT base, as well as introducing new levies on electronic goods to compensate for revenue shortfalls
