Russia's military campaign in Ukraine stalls for first time in more than two years
Key Points:
- In March 2026, Russia's army made no territorial gains in Ukraine for the first time in two and a half years, while Ukrainian forces recaptured 9 square kilometres, signaling a significant slowdown in Russian advances.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project attribute the Russian slowdown to Ukrainian counter-offensives, restrictions on Starlink terminals, and Kremlin-imposed blocks on the Telegram messaging app used by Russian troops.
- Russia has lost ground particularly in the southern front line between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk, with occupied territory shrinking from over 400 square kilometres in January to 144 square kilometres in March.
- Despite more progress in 2025 compared to the previous two years, Russian territorial gains in early 2026 are half of those in the same period last year, with Moscow currently controlling just over 19 percent of Ukraine.
- The majority of Russian-held territory was seized during the initial weeks of the 2022 invasion, with about seven percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donbas, under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the full-scale conflict.