Russia's Race to Replace Starlink Is Failing

Key Points:

• Russia's Rassvet satellite network, designed to replace Starlink connectivity over Ukraine, has failed to reach its intended operational altitude of 540 miles, with many satellites only reaching 180 miles and some experiencing orbital decay.
• Moscow launched 16 Rassvet satellites on July 19, but none achieved the required altitude as of August 31, indicating technical setbacks and delays in Russia's plans to deploy its own satellite constellation for military communications.
• Despite setbacks, the existing Rassvet satellites still pose a threat by potentially enabling more precise Russian strikes using remotely controlled unmanned systems in Ukraine.
• Ukraine has targeted Russian space infrastructure, including attacks on the Progress Space Center and Plesetsk Cosmodrome, hindering Russia's satellite launch capabilities, which rely heavily on the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle.
• Starlink's denial of service to Russian forces has critically impacted the battlefield, earning Elon Musk an award from Ukraine, while Ukraine seeks expanded Starlink access to target missile launchers inside Russia, potentially reducing reliance on U.S. air defense systems.