S.C. Succession: Final U.S. Senate Polls Show Coin Flip

Key Points:

• A final poll by GOP strategist Rick Quinn shows Democrat Annie Andrews narrowly leading interim U.S. Senator Darline Graham Nordone by 1.6% in South Carolina's U.S. Senate race, with Andrews at 46.2% and Nordone at 44.6%, within the poll’s 4% margin of error.
• Quinn notes that recent visits by President Donald Trump have boosted Nordone’s support among Republicans, tightening the race in the final days, but Election Day turnout remains critical to the outcome.
• In the South Carolina governor’s race, Republican Alan Wilson holds a significant lead over Democrat Jermaine Johnson, with 50.6% support to Johnson’s 42.3%, suggesting Wilson is poised to win comfortably.
• Polling data indicates that black voter turnout will be a key factor, with Quinn estimating a final black turnout of 22.5%; higher turnout could impact the Senate race but is less likely to affect the governor’s race outcome.
• Despite South Carolina’s strong Republican history, the Senate race is considered a toss-up, with Democrats having not won a statewide race since 2006 and no U.S. Senate seat since 1998, making Andrews’ potential win notable.