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Scientists say they can now predict where an earthquake will strike next
Yahoo • • science
Key Points:
- Scientists at the University of California-Riverside have developed a method to identify where the biggest earthquakes are likely to occur by measuring stress accumulation along major tectonic faults, particularly in subduction zones.
- Their approach uses GPS data and an algorithm to detect locked fault segments, called asperities, which store energy until a major quake is triggered; this method successfully highlighted the exact rupture zone of the 8.8-magnitude earthquake off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula in 2025.
- While the methodology does not predict the timing or magnitude of earthquakes or resulting tsunamis, it can improve long-term hazard assessment and preparedness by pinpointing areas of greatest seismic risk.
- The research showed that the 2025 Kamchatka quake was less powerful than a 1952 event in the same region, as indicated by a smaller tsunami and less slip in the shallow fault portion.
- The UCR team plans to apply this technique to other major subduction zones around the Pacific Ring of Fire to enhance understanding of earthquake hazards globally.
