Senate control remains toss-up as Kansas, Ohio shift in 2026 polls

Key Points:

• Kansas Senate race shifts from Lean Republican to Toss-up as GOP Senator Roger Marshall faces a strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, with Republicans spending significant resources despite the state's conservative reputation.
• Nebraska Senate race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican; Senator Pete Ricketts leads but could be vulnerable to an upset by independent Dan Osborn if there is a larger-than-expected swing against the GOP.
• Democrats are favored in 48 Senate seats and Republicans in 45, making control of the Senate a toss-up; Democrats could win up to 55 seats on a strong night, while Republicans could retain control with up to 52 seats.
• The House forecast predicts Democrats will likely flip the chamber with at least 223 seats, potentially reaching as high as 252 seats in a best-case scenario, while Republicans hold 195 seats with a ceiling of around 212.
• Ohio's gubernatorial race moves from Toss-up to Lean Democrat amid controversy over a negative ad by Republican Vivek Ramaswamy; Democrat Amy Acton leads in most polls despite the contentious campaign.