South Korea ditches 'denuclearization-first' strategy. What will Pyongyang do next?

Key Points:

• South Korea is shifting its policy from demanding North Korea's complete denuclearization to seeking a freeze on its nuclear program first, offering reciprocal concessions for interim steps.
• This change reflects a "harsh reality" amid North Korea's strengthened ties with Russia and China, and a less coordinated international pressure on Pyongyang.
• North Korea, under Kim Jong Un, has firmly entrenched its nuclear weapons program constitutionally and views denuclearization as an impossible and costly reversal.
• Despite South Korea's pragmatic approach aiming for dialogue and peaceful coexistence, experts doubt North Korea will return to negotiations due to its increased confidence and strategic partnerships, especially with Moscow.
• North Korea's nuclear capabilities continue to expand, with an estimated 60 warheads and diversified delivery systems, while sanctions enforcement weakens as China and Russia are accused of sanction evasion.