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SpaceX stock falls below its IPO price despite a wall of bullish analyst price targets
Fortune • • business
Key Points:
- SpaceX shares have fallen nearly 60% from their peak shortly after the June IPO, dropping below the $135 IPO price to around $125, surprising investors and analysts who had been uniformly bullish.
- Eighteen banks involved in the IPO issued highly optimistic 12-18 month price targets averaging $225, implying a 41% increase from the $160 price before forecasts, despite SpaceX’s $4.9 billion loss on under $19 billion revenue in 2025.
- The banks earned $500 million in fees from the $75 billion IPO, but their price targets appear to be closely aligned and influenced by each other, reflecting uncertainty rather than independent analysis.
- Achieving the median target valuation of $3 trillion by late 2027 would require unprecedented growth and profitability, making the forecasts appear mathematically improbable given SpaceX’s current fundamentals.
- Analysts’ uniform optimism is seen as largely speculative and mechanical, as SpaceX’s future value is difficult to assess due to its lack of profitability and unclear growth trajectory.
