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SpaceX Stock Is Down 26% From Its Post-IPO High. History Says a $20,000 Investment Will Be Worth This Much by Mid-2027.
The Motley Fool • • business
Key Points:
- Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) made a historic IPO on June 12, raising $75 billion with a market valuation of $1.7 trillion at $135 per share, and the stock initially surged 50% before falling 26% to $150 amid concerns about bonds and lockup expirations.
- Historically, large IPOs tend to perform poorly in their first year, with an average one-year return of 2% below IPO price and maximum drawdowns of 23%; applying this to SpaceX suggests potential downside risks of 11% to 30% from current prices within the next year.
- Currently, less than 5% of SpaceX shares are publicly tradable, but upcoming lockup expirations starting late July will significantly increase the float, potentially more than doubling available shares to 1.5 billion and eventually reaching 3 billion by late October.
- The substantial increase in publicly tradable shares is likely to put downward pressure on SpaceX’s stock price as the market absorbs the additional supply, raising the risk of further price declines in the coming months.
