Strait of Hormuz: After more oil left the Gulf, Iran tries to regain its stranglehold on shipping

Key Points:

• Iran has intensified attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf since late September, aiming to regain leverage over this crucial oil transit route, contributing to sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel.
• US President Donald Trump declared no plans to strike Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic talks and prioritizing preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) views control over the Strait of Hormuz as a "strategic red line" and has expanded its targeting in the Gulf, including recent attacks causing fires and damage to tankers, while warning vessels near UAE waters to relocate.
• The US maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports to exert economic pressure, recently disabling a cargo ship attempting to breach the blockade, with September marking the first month since 2013 that Iran exported no crude oil via tanker.
• Tehran asserts that if it cannot export oil, neighboring countries will also face export disruptions, signaling a shift toward a more offensive military posture to enforce this stance amid severe economic challenges.