'Super' El Niño is super likely as California braces for impact

Key Points:

• A "super" El Niño has a 95% chance of developing in 2024, with a 70% likelihood of being the strongest since 1950, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, raising concerns about a wet and potentially destructive winter in California.
• El Niño typically brings warmer ocean waters and altered atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific, often resulting in above-average precipitation in Southern California, especially from December to March.
• This year's El Niño could exceed historical temperature thresholds, with a 69% chance of surpassing 4.5 degrees above baseline, a level never recorded since 1950, indicating unprecedented warming in the tropical Pacific.
• The pattern increases risks such as stronger eastern Pacific hurricane activity, which can bring hazardous high waves and heavy tropical moisture to California, though the likelihood of an intact tropical storm reaching the region remains low.
• While no definitive El Niño impacts have yet been observed on the West Coast, related phenomena like marine heat waves and increased humidity are already affecting Southern California, with ocean temperatures in July reaching near-record highs.