Super El Niño winter: What to expect in the US

Key Points:

• A rapidly strengthening El Niño is forecast to become a Super El Niño by October, with a nearly 70% chance of becoming the strongest on record by year-end, potentially impacting global weather patterns significantly.
• During El Niño winters, the jet stream typically shifts southward, bringing wetter and cooler conditions to southern US regions, while northern areas tend to be warmer and drier, resulting in less snowfall for the Northeast.
• The Southeast and southern Plains may experience increased precipitation and cooler temperatures, raising the possibility of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, while Florida faces a higher risk of severe thunderstorms in winter.
• NOAA's early winter forecast indicates above-average temperatures across much of the northern US and wetter conditions in the southern tier and East Coast, consistent with El Niño influences but also affected by broader climate warming trends.
• While El Niño increases the likelihood of certain weather patterns, it does not guarantee extreme impacts, and ongoing climate change is contributing to warmer winters and declining snowfall across much of the country.