Super Typhoon Bavi becomes the 3rd Cat 5 of 2026

Key Points:

• Typhoon Bavi rapidly intensified over the Pacific east of Guam, becoming the third Category 5 tropical cyclone globally in 2026 with 160 mph winds, exceeding rapid intensification criteria by a large margin.
• Favorable environmental conditions such as low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures enabled Bavi's intensification; it is forecasted to peak at 175 mph before slightly weakening due to an eyewall replacement cycle as it approaches the Northern Mariana Islands.
• A Typhoon Watch has been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan, with warnings of catastrophic damage from sustained winds up to 175 mph and seas as high as 45 feet.
• After passing the Northern Mariana Islands, Bavi is expected to maintain major typhoon strength and pose a threat to Taiwan or China by July 10, though intensity forecasts beyond a few days remain uncertain.
• Bavi exemplifies the influence of the ongoing strong El Niño event, which tends to produce more frequent and intense typhoons in the Northwest Pacific; the number of Category 5 storms worldwide has increased significantly since 1982, consistent with climate change projections.