Tarik Skubal's free agency contract, predicted by MLB insiders

Key Points:

• Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Tarik Skubal, a back-to-back AL Cy Young winner, is the clear top prize in this year’s less star-studded free agent class, with contract projections averaging eight years and $355 million guaranteed.
• Industry experts forecast Skubal’s contract to range widely from under $300 million to over $500 million, with most estimates clustering between $325 million and $400 million over seven to ten years, reflecting concerns about his injury history and the risk of long-term pitcher deals.
• The majority (78%) of insiders expect Skubal’s deal to be finalized before the December 1 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement to avoid an anticipated lockout, with agent Scott Boras likely to pursue a record-setting guaranteed amount possibly including opt-outs, deferrals, and a large signing bonus.
• Potential suitors include the Dodgers, New York Mets, and Detroit Tigers as leading contenders, with the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, and Chicago White Sox considered sleeper teams; the New York Yankees also remain a strong fallback option given their recent free agent pitching acquisitions.
• Skubal’s injury history, including multiple elbow procedures, and his age (turning 30) create uncertainty that may limit the number of serious bidders willing to meet his financial expectations, but a bidding war between even two teams could push the final contract beyond projections.