The 2026 election could be the GOP’s worst in the 21st century

Key Points:

• The 2026 midterm elections pose a potentially worse outcome for the GOP than the historically bad midterms of 2006 and 2018, driven largely by President Trump's significant unpopularity and economic dissatisfaction among voters.
• Trump’s approval ratings are notably lower than those of George W. Bush in 2006 and Trump himself in 2018, with current polls showing him 29 to 34 points underwater nationally, marking him as one of the most unpopular presidents before a midterm in modern history.
• Economic concerns dominate voter priorities in 2026, with Trump's economic approval at just 27%, far worse than previous midterms, and only 28% of Americans viewing the economy positively compared to much higher numbers in 2006 and 2018.
• Public disapproval of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict is stronger than Bush’s Iraq war ratings in 2006, with significant majorities opposing the war and Trump’s foreign policy, although the Iran conflict lacks some of the direct military engagement seen in Iraq.
• Despite these challenges for Republicans, the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats leading by 8 points—less than their leads in comparable periods before 2006 and 2018—partly due to the Democratic Party’s historically low favorability rating of 30%, which is similar to the GOP’s rating.