The 2026 midterms are less than 2 weeks away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say.

Key Points:

• With less than two weeks until the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats hold a significant lead of about 9 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot, suggesting a strong chance to regain control of the House by picking up at least three seats.
• Senate races remain highly competitive and state-specific, with Democrats currently favored to flip four Republican seats, aided by solid leads in key states such as Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.
• Several Republican-held Senate seats in states like Iowa, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, and South Carolina are closely contested, with Democrats gaining ground and targeting these races as potential pickups.
• President Trump's approval ratings are notably low, with 60% of Americans disapproving of his job performance and a 49-point deficit on his handling of inflation, which historically correlates with midterm losses for the president's party.
• Overall, polling trends and historical patterns indicate a Democratic advantage in both the House and Senate races, though outcomes could still shift due to late-breaking events or polling inaccuracies.