The end of Putin’s regime will spring from war spending chaos, former central bank advisor says

Key Points:

• Russia’s prolonged war in Ukraine has led to the Kremlin abandoning fiscal discipline, with parliament granting the finance ministry unchecked spending powers amid a rapidly growing budget deficit and depleted sovereign wealth funds.
• Ukraine’s recent military successes, including advanced drone attacks deep into Russian territory, have inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces and strained the country’s resources, contributing to fuel shortages and increased death-benefit payouts.
• Public frustration is mounting in Russia due to high inflation, fuel rationing, and the military’s heavy losses, exemplified by viral reports of soldier mistreatment and calls for dialogue with Putin, signaling growing discontent within the armed forces.
• Despite Putin’s current grip on power, experts warn that ongoing economic hardship and war-related dissatisfaction could lead to internal regime fractures, potentially increasing the risk of escalation both within Russia and in the broader region.
• Observers caution that while a revolution in Russia remains unlikely, the coming months may be volatile as Putin struggles to maintain control amid mounting pressures at home and abroad.