The Fight for the Future of Democratic Foreign Policy

Key Points:

• The 2028 Democratic presidential primary will feature a pivotal debate over the party’s foreign policy direction, reflecting deep divisions between centrists focused on strategic competition and progressives emphasizing global cooperation and shared challenges.
• Centrists generally support restoring U.S. power through alliances, military modernization, and deterrence, while progressives criticize the U.S.-led international order as flawed and advocate for restraint, reduced military commitments, and prioritizing transnational issues like climate change and AI safety.
• The party is experiencing sharp debates on key issues such as U.S. policy toward Israel and the Middle East, with centrists proposing conditional support and sanctions on Israel, and progressives pushing for more radical changes including possible withdrawal from the region.
• AI safety and technological competition with China have emerged as contentious topics, with centrists favoring regulated competition and export controls, and progressives often skeptical of a “race to win” narrative, advocating for moratoriums and arms-control-style agreements with China.
• Without clear, open debates and voter engagement on these foreign policy divisions, the next Democratic administration risks internal conflict and indecision at a time of intense global strategic challenges, underscoring the need for a coherent, unified agenda.