The forecast is in: A super El Niño winter is coming.

Key Points:

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a winter dominated by a near-record strong El Niño, leading to milder and wetter conditions across much of the U.S., especially the West Coast and southern states.
• El Niño typically directs the jet stream toward the southern U.S., causing more storms and wetter, cooler weather there, while northern states generally experience drier and milder conditions, potentially resulting in less snow in inland Northeast areas.
• California faces a high risk of above-average precipitation, prompting a state of emergency declaration due to potential flooding, heavy mountain snow, and coastal impacts; historical strong El Niños have previously caused severe flooding and mudslides in the state.
• The Southeast and southern Plains may see wintry precipitation like snow, sleet, and freezing rain depending on cold air availability, while the East Coast could experience strong storms with heavy rain and snow if cold air coincides with storm systems.
• Over half of the Lower 48 states are expected to have warmer-than-normal temperatures, influenced by both El Niño and ongoing climate warming, with a noted long-term decline in snowfall across much of the country since 1970.