The Iran War and How It Might End

Key Points:

• The U.S. and Israel initiated war against Iran primarily to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, with the U.S. focusing on the nuclear threat and Israel also concerned about Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• The initial U.S. airstrikes damaged but did not destroy Iran’s nuclear program, and subsequent Iranian rejection of demands led to full-scale war starting February 28, with Trump wrongly assuming airpower alone could force Iranian capitulation.
• The war has caused global oil price surges and political problems in the U.S., reminiscent of past costly conflicts like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, raising doubts about the war’s successful outcome.
• Three possible war endings include U.S. victory by airpower (unlikely), ground invasion (costly and politically damaging), or a negotiated settlement, with the latter seen as the most feasible given Iran’s strong position and U.S. domestic opposition to the war.
• China might play a crucial role in pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for economic concessions, potentially facilitating a negotiated settlement that benefits both the U.S. and China, especially in light of upcoming Sino-American trade talks.