The Iran war is driving a re

Key Points:

• Since 2016, Donald Trump gained significant support from working- and lower-middle-class Americans, particularly among non-college voters and those earning $30,000 to $100,000 annually, as well as in high-poverty counties reliant on welfare.
• Recent polling from the New York Times/Siena shows a potential shift, with nearly two-thirds of Americans earning less than $50,000 planning to vote for a Democratic nominee in the upcoming midterms, signaling possible trouble for Trump and the GOP.
• Rising fuel prices driven by Middle Eastern conflicts have increased living costs, undermining Trump's campaign promises to lower expenses and avoid foreign wars, contributing to waning working-class support.
• The Trump coalition included conditional supporters from the working class who opposed new Middle Eastern wars; however, military actions and unfulfilled peace promises have eroded this base.
• Progressive strategists aim to rebuild the Democrats’ historic bond with working-class voters, though deep mistrust remains due to the party’s shift away from New Deal traditions toward corporate and progressive interests.