'The Mandalorian and Grogu' Is Currently Tracking for the Lowest 'Star Wars' Opening in Years

Key Points:

• "The Mandalorian and Grogu," the first Star Wars movie in nearly seven years, is projected to open with around $80 million over the Memorial Day weekend, slightly below or on par with 2018's "Solo: A Star Wars Story."
• This estimated opening is significantly lower than recent Star Wars films from 2015 to 2019, which had openings ranging from $155 million to $248 million, but it surpasses older prequel films like "The Phantom Menace" and "Attack of the Clones" in unadjusted dollars.
• Marketing efforts for the film are just beginning, with upcoming Star Wars Day events and promotional activities expected to boost interest and potentially increase box office performance upon release.
• Unlike traditional Star Wars movies, "The Mandalorian and Grogu" is based on a Disney+ series, making comparisons to other franchise films less direct; its projected opening aligns more closely with franchise-adjacent films such as "High School Musical 3," "Star Trek" (2009), and "Hobbs and Shaw."
• Early box office estimates often trend low, so the final opening weekend could approach $100 million, but it remains to be seen how Disney and Lucasfilm will view this performance relative to expectations.