The Rise of Prediction Markets
The New York Times • • business
Key Points:
- Antigovernment protests in Iran have led to civilian casualties and prompted President Trump to consider possible military intervention.
- Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have become popular platforms where users wager millions on various events, including political outcomes such as the fate of Iran’s supreme leader.
- These platforms have expanded from niche political betting to mainstream culture, with partnerships involving major media outlets like CNN, CNBC, and The Wall Street Journal.
- Trading volume on these prediction markets surged to nearly $12 billion in December, a 400% increase from the previous year, reflecting rapid growth and significant investor interest.
- Both companies have connections to the Trump family, with Donald Trump Jr. serving as an adviser to Polymarket and
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