The Under-the-Radar Labor Market Chart Scaring Economists Right Now
Business Insider••general
Key Points:
- The US labor market shows signs of potential deterioration despite adding 50,000 jobs in December and a slight drop in unemployment to 4.4%, according to the Beveridge curve, which links unemployment rates with job vacancy rates over labor market cycles.
- The job vacancy rate has fallen to 4.6%, indicating it is becoming harder to find work, which historically precedes a sharp rise in unemployment, suggesting downside risks to the labor market are increasing.
- Economists warn that even a modest increase in layoffs could quickly push unemployment higher due to the current low hiring rates, making the labor market fragile and raising recession risks above normal levels.
- Additional indicators, such as the negative jobs-to-workers ratio and the recent uptick
