The war with Iran is ‘over’ but the jet fuel crisis is about to begin

Key Points:

• Goldman Sachs warns of a looming jet fuel crisis, with global oil supplies dropping to 98 days of demand by the end of May and Europe's jet fuel availability expected to fall below critical shortage levels in June, particularly risking rationing in the UK.
• South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the UK have significantly reduced their jet fuel inventories, while the US has maintained full local supply; operational constraints at refineries and storage facilities may further reduce usable oil stocks to sustain only 30-40 days of demand.
• The conflict with Iran has reached a stalemate, with the US declaring an end to "Operation Epic Fury" and pausing its naval escort mission, but the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains, causing supply chain disruptions and fueling uncertainty about future escalations.
• AI adoption appears to be reducing jobs in tech sectors, with payroll declines in software and electronics manufacturing over the past two years, exemplified by Coinbase's recent 14% staff layoffs attributed to AI-driven efficiencies.
• Despite earning $500,000 or more annually, 40% of US households report living paycheck-to-paycheck, a statistic challenged by experts who attribute this perception to social media influences and post-pandemic declines in reported happiness.