This summer isn’t breaking heat records — yet. Wait until El Nino kicks in, scientists say

Key Points:

• Wildfires and deadly heat waves are currently impacting North America and Europe, with the world's oceans reaching record high temperatures for this time of year, driven by a strengthening and potentially record-breaking El Nino.
• Although 2026 is currently the third-hottest year on record behind 2024 and 2025, scientists warn that the combination of accelerated human-caused global warming and a strong El Nino could make 2026 the hottest year by the end of the year or close to it.
• Climate experts estimate a rising probability, now around 35%, that 2026 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year, with many agreeing that 2027 is very likely to break temperature records by an even greater margin.
• The extreme heat experienced this summer is primarily attributed to human-induced climate change rather than El Nino, as its full effects typically manifest later in the year; decreasing industrial pollution and stronger-than-expected climate responses are accelerating warming.
• The frequency and severity of heat waves worldwide, including unprecedented events in Europe, North and South America, and India, are consistent with scientific predictions linking climate change to increased risks of extreme heat and wildfires.