Tropical Depression likely to form in the Gulf this week but storm's future still uncertain

Key Points:

• Invest 92L is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week, with Wednesday being critical for assessing its development amid hostile El Niño-driven winds and dry air.
• The National Hurricane Center has assigned high odds for Invest 92L to become at least a tropical depression within the next two days, though its eventual strength and path remain uncertain.
• Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rain and potential flash flooding are forecasted for parts of the Florida and Louisiana coasts this weekend, with NOAA issuing a Level 2 flash flood risk for the Southeast.
• Gulf water temperatures are currently at record highs since 1982, creating favorable conditions for tropical development despite the Atlantic hurricane season's quiet start, including September ending without a hurricane for the first time in 32 years.
• If no hurricanes form during the remainder of the 2026 season, it would be the first hurricane-free Atlantic season in the modern satellite era.