Trump’s Iran deal is a disaster, even if the Strait of Hormuz magically reopens

Key Points:

• Donald Trump's memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran is widely viewed as a significant political failure for the United States, comparable to or worse than the withdrawal from Afghanistan, with Trump and his deputy JD Vance showing little acknowledgment of the damage caused.
• The MOU leaves critical issues unresolved, such as Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and includes concessions like lifting sanctions and halting new sanctions or military deployments in the region without securing meaningful commitments from Iran.
• Critics argue that Trump and Vance mistakenly perceive Iran's leadership as reasonable and likely to change behavior, ignoring decades of Iran's clandestine nuclear ambitions and history of exploiting negotiations for economic gain without denuclearizing.
• The agreement has raised concerns among U.S. allies, especially Israel and Gulf Arab states, who face threats from Iran's ballistic missiles and regional influence, while the U.S. appears to be pressuring Israel to reduce military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• Trump's handling of the Iran situation reflects broader strategic failures, including poor preparation for economic consequences, lack of consultation with allies, and failure to support internal Iranian opposition, culminating in a perceived American setback that Trump dismisses by shifting blame.