Ukrainian Strikes Will Likely Continue to Hurt Russia

Key Points:

• Ukrainian forces have intensified long- and intermediate-range strikes against Russian energy and logistics infrastructure since early 2026, targeting oil refineries, storage, and transport facilities up to 2,000 km inside Russia and occupied Ukraine, causing widespread gasoline shortages and disrupting fuel production and distribution.
• These strikes have led to significant gasoline shortages across Russia and occupied territories, with 78 of 83 Russian federal subjects experiencing fuel shortages and 48 imposing sales restrictions, resulting in long lines, rising prices, and severe impacts on civilian life.
• Ukraine’s campaign is reducing Russia’s petrochemical export revenues by targeting transshipment infrastructure, prompting Russia to ban gasoline and jet fuel exports temporarily and import fuel from other countries, thereby straining the Kremlin’s war budget.
• The strikes are increasingly affecting Russia’s frontline logistics by disrupting ground lines of communication and causing diesel shortages, which may impair Russian military mobility and supply chains in key conflict zones.
• Despite Kremlin efforts to mitigate shortages through imports, tapping reserves, and regulatory changes, Russia’s inability to rapidly strengthen air defenses leaves it vulnerable to continued or escalated Ukrainian strikes, which will likely further degrade Russia’s wartime economy and military capabilities.