UN says we're going to blow past 1.5º warming, offers a "now what?" answer
Key Points:
- The United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) has acknowledged that keeping global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is no longer viable, shifting focus to minimizing the duration and extent of temperature overshoot.
- Despite the Paris Agreement's targets, most countries have not aligned their policies accordingly, and current emissions trajectories could lead to a 2.8°C increase by the century's end, with net-zero pledges still falling short at 2.1°C.
- To limit warming, UNEP calls for dramatic emissions cuts, including a 75% reduction in coal use by 2035 and significant cuts in oil and gas by 2040, alongside removing approximately 320 gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100.
- Current climate pledges are insufficient, projected to reduce emissions by only 12% by 2035, leaving a substantial gap compared to the reductions needed to follow even a minimal overshoot pathway.
- The report emphasizes that while limiting warming is still possible, it requires urgent, substantial action from countries worldwide, many of which have so far failed to meet initial climate commitments.