US-Israeli plan for Kurdish invasion of Iran reportedly collapsed amid leaks, distrust

Key Points:

• The United States and Israel had planned a Kurdish militia invasion of Iran early in the current war, aiming to incite a rebellion to overthrow the Islamic Republic, but the plan was abandoned due to media leaks, allied lobbying, Kurdish hesitancy, and regional opposition.
• The operation involved tens of thousands of Kurdish fighters crossing from Iraqi Kurdistan under heavy US and Israeli air support, with coordinated strikes targeting Iranian security forces to facilitate the invasion.
• Israeli intelligence viewed the plan skeptically, calling it "imaginary" and "full of holes," but it was presented confidently to US and Israeli leadership, influencing President Trump to approve initial strikes against Iran.
• The plan was postponed after leaks to US media revealed the impending offensive, leading Iran to strengthen defenses and regional actors like Turkey and Gulf states to oppose Kurdish independence efforts, while the Kurds demanded political guarantees amid doubts about US reliability.
• Ultimately, the loss of surprise and rising risks caused Trump to cancel the invasion, with subsequent attempts also scrapped; this failure has strained relations between Netanyahu and Trump, and both leaders have since moderated their rhetoric on regime change in Iran.