U.S. will need years to replenish stockpiles of advanced weapons used in Iran war, new analysis finds

Key Points:

• China aims to have military capability to take Taiwan by force by 2027, but experts view this as aspirational rather than a strict deadline; President Xi Jinping warned that U.S.-China relations over Taiwan could escalate to conflict if mishandled.
• The Trump administration's $1.5 trillion defense budget proposal for 2027 accelerates spending on high-end munitions, but experts note that the main challenge is the time required to expand production capacity, not funding.
• Replenishing depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles, including Tomahawk missiles and air defense interceptors like THAAD and Patriot systems, could take until the late 2020s due to past low production rates and complex supply chains.
• Bipartisan congressional concern exists over diminished munitions inventories, with Democrats citing the Iran war and Republicans pointing to aid sent to Ukraine; the root cause traces back to post-Cold War assumptions about short, regional conflicts.
• Despite current vulnerabilities, U.S. military capabilities remain strong, and China’s lack of recent combat experience may help maintain deterrence until U.S. stockpiles are rebuilt.