Vladimir Putin prepares Russian draft surge, European hybrid attacks after Duma election

Key Points:

• Western intelligence sources indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to escalate the war with Ukraine following the State Duma elections, potentially through a draft surge, accelerated mobilization, and intensified strikes against Ukraine and its European allies.
• European officials report a rise in Russian "hybrid operations," including cyberattacks, sabotage, and espionage within NATO countries, raising concerns about potential incursions into NATO territory.
• Russia is reportedly preparing for forced mobilization to bolster its military ranks amid heavy casualties and war fatigue, with Ukrainian intelligence estimating an additional draft of 300,000 troops, though Western officials question the feasibility given equipment demands.
• The US is considering a significant troop withdrawal from Europe, which has heightened European anxieties about security and prompted some NATO members to increase their military capabilities and reduce reliance on US defense support.
• Germany is actively expanding its military forces to become Europe's strongest conventional army, reversing its previous suspension of conscription and increasing defense budgets in response to the evolving security landscape.