Wall Street firm Citrini Research analyzes Strait of Hormuz
CNBC • • nation
Key Points:
- Citrini Research sent an analyst to Oman's Musandam Peninsula to observe shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz amid rising Iran-U.S. tensions, challenging the prevailing view that the strait is effectively closed.
- The analyst reported that about 15 ships per day are passing through, with many turning off their AIS transponders, indicating higher actual traffic than official data suggests.
- Iran appears to be selectively allowing ships to transit after securing approval, creating a "functional checkpoint" rather than a full blockade, according to interviews with local sources.
- Citrini cautions that these findings are based on a single trip and anecdotal evidence, but expects a prolonged disruption with a lasting risk premium in oil markets.
- The firm favors longer-dated crude contracts, anticipating traffic to recover to about 50% of pre-conflict levels within 4-6 weeks despite ongoing tensions.
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