What is Gavin Newsom doing?

Key Points:

• California Gov. Gavin Newsom, once the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, has seen his support drop from 25% in January to 15%, with prediction markets reflecting a decline in his chances from 35.5% to 23.3%.
• Newsom's political positioning as an establishment Democrat aligned with the Biden legacy may be limiting his appeal, especially as Biden’s favorability remains low outside core Democratic voters, and many Democrats prefer Barack Obama’s legacy.
• Newsom appeals primarily to the #Resistance Lib faction of the Democratic Party, which is more partisan than ideological and views him as a fighter who aligns with their views on the 2024 election loss and opposition to Trump.
• Despite Newsom’s strengths, his electability is questioned due to underwhelming margins in California and lack of swing state credentials, with candidates like Jon Ossoff and Josh Shapiro seen as stronger in that regard.
• Newsom’s strategy seems to be embracing his establishment identity and solidifying his base among #Resistance Libs, but this may limit his broader appeal and risk positioning him as a “least-worst” candidate rather than a compelling nominee.