What to watch for as Maine races head to ranked-choice runoffs

Key Points:

• Three major primary elections in Maine, including the gubernatorial and 2nd Congressional District Democratic primaries, are heading to ranked-choice runoffs as no candidate secured over 50% of the vote. Ranked-choice tabulation will begin Friday with results expected next week.
• In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Nirav Shah leads with 26.8%, closely followed by Hannah Pingree, Troy Jackson, and Shenna Bellows, all within 7 percentage points, making the runoff outcome uncertain; Angus King III finished fifth and will be eliminated first.
• The Republican gubernatorial primary has front-runner Bobby Charles at 37.3%, ahead of Ben Midgley and Jonathan Bush, who are expected to gain votes from eliminated candidates, but it is unclear if either can surpass Charles in the runoff.
• In the 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary, Joe Baldacci leads with 31.6%, narrowly ahead of Jordan Wood and Matt Dunlap, with Paige Loud conceding; the redistribution of Loud’s votes will be critical, but a second round of ranked-choice voting may be needed.
• Recent studies and simulations offer mixed predictions for the outcomes, with some favoring Shah and Baldacci, while others suggest potential wins for Pingree or Bellows, highlighting the complexity and unpredictability of ranked-choice runoffs.