When will winter weather arrive? Here's your November forecast

Key Points:

• November is forecast to be one of the warmest on record across the U.S., driven primarily by the ongoing El Niño, which influences above-average temperatures nationwide except in the Southwest.
• Above-average temperatures are expected from Northern California through the Northwest, northern Plains, Mississippi Valley, and into the East, with no regions predicted to experience below-average temperatures.
• The Southwest and central to northern Plains are forecast to see above-average precipitation, while Michigan and Montana may experience drier-than-average conditions; Southern California faces ongoing coastal flooding risks, particularly around November 25.
• At least one significant storm is predicted to bring heavy snow to the Mountain West and heavy rain causing flooding in parts of the West, with another storm likely near Thanksgiving affecting the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, potentially bringing winter flurries to the Great Lakes and Northeast.
• The mild weather pattern is attributed to a highly energized Pacific jet stream influenced by El Niño and Pacific marine heat waves, with warmer-than-average conditions expected to continue into December and beyond, reducing the likelihood of extended cold Arctic air outbreaks.