Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost

Key Points:

• The 3 November US midterm elections will determine control of Congress, with Republicans currently holding narrow majorities in both the House and Senate, impacting the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency.
• Trump's low approval rating, currently around 37%, has boosted Democratic hopes to regain control of both chambers, especially in key battleground districts and states.
• The House majority is precarious for Republicans, holding exactly the 218 seats needed for control plus one independent ally, with only 21 districts considered competitive; Democrats need to flip at least five toss-ups to win the House.
• In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats' 45 plus two independents, with 35 seats up for election; Democrats must win at least four toss-ups and maintain key seats in states Trump won decisively to gain control.
• Key voter issues include the cost of living crisis, healthcare, and immigration, with Trump's handling of the Iran conflict and inflation negatively affecting his approval, while Republicans maintain a significant financial advantage in campaign funding.