Which NFL win total projections are too low, too high or just right?

Key Points:

• The 2026 NFL season kicks off on Sept. 9 with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, both projected to win around 10 games.
• Analysts generally agree with The Athletic’s win projections for most teams, with some exceptions: Falcons, Bengals, Texans, Jaguars, Chargers, Buccaneers, and Steelers are seen as having higher potential than projected, while Browns, Dolphins, and Commanders may perform worse than expected.
• The Seahawks and Patriots projections (10.8 and 10.3 wins respectively) are considered accurate, with the Seahawks facing a tough schedule and the Patriots benefiting from offensive upgrades.
• Teams like the Rams (11.6 wins projected) and Lions (10.2 wins) are also viewed as realistic contenders, while teams such as the Dolphins (4.5 wins) and Browns (5.3 wins) face significant challenges.
• Key factors influencing projections include quarterback health, coaching changes, defensive strength, schedule difficulty, and roster depth across various teams.