Why are gas prices dropping and how low will they go?

Key Points:

• The national average price for regular gasoline fell below $4 per gallon this week for the first time since July, reaching $3.94, which is 18 cents lower than last week and over 40 cents lower than a month ago, according to AAA.
• GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan forecasts prices could drop further to between $3.65 and $3.75 by Thanksgiving, though these would still be the highest fuel prices recorded for the holiday.
• The recent decline in gas prices is influenced by seasonal factors such as reduced driving in colder weather and the switch to cheaper winter gasoline, as well as geopolitical developments including increased oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump's comments on Iran.
• Senate Republican Leader John Thune acknowledged that high fuel prices significantly impacted the party's midterm election losses, highlighting economic pain as a key voter concern.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and unresolved conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, continue to keep fuel prices elevated, with U.S. diplomatic efforts ongoing but no major breakthroughs yet.