Why Ukraine needs Russia's terminal defeat - not just deterrence

Key Points:

• The traditional "steel porcupine" deterrence model, focusing on strong defense to make Russian aggression costly, has proven insufficient for Ukraine five years into the conflict, as Ukraine's resources are steadily depleted against a resource-rich adversary.
• The concept of "functional defeat," which aims to limit an adversary's effective military deployment without destroying its forces, has had limited success beyond the Black Sea and lacks a clear path for broader application as of 2026.
• The Sahaidachnyi Security Center advocates for a "terminal defeat" strategy that targets Russia's critical vulnerabilities to cause irreversible damage to its war capacity and state functions through sustained deep strikes and systemic pressure.
• This approach shifts Ukraine's defense focus to holding the line and minimizing losses while buying time to weaken Russia strategically, accepting that some occupied territories may be reclaimed only after Russia's war-making ability is degraded.
• To address risks from Russian remote strikes and potential mobilization, Ukraine must enhance soldier protection, expand long-range strike capabilities, accelerate robotization of combat forces, and prioritize anti-drone air defense while managing persistent scarcity in missile interceptors.