Will fuel prices drag down Trump on midterm Election Day 2026?

Key Points:

• Gas prices are a major concern for voters in the 2024 midterm elections, with President Trump facing record-high average gas prices of $4.14 per gallon on Election Day, the highest compared to previous election years since 1994.
• A recent poll from Navigator Research shows 76% of registered U.S. voters disapprove of Trump's handling of gas prices, contributing to his historically low approval ratings ahead of the midterms.
• Despite Trump's campaign promises that gas prices will soon decrease, prices have remained above $4 per gallon since April, influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the U.S.-Iran conflict and ongoing events in Ukraine.
• Gas price trends ahead of Election Day show slight decreases due to seasonal factors and refinery maintenance, but future prices remain uncertain and dependent on developments in the Strait of Hormuz and related international conflicts.
• Historically, inflation-adjusted gas prices on Election Days have averaged around $3.40 per gallon since 1994, making the current prices notably higher and a significant issue for voters this election cycle.