Will Ukraine's 'long-range sanctions' decide the war?

Key Points:

• The large-scale Russian drone and missile attacks on Kyiv in July 2026, while significant, have not altered the overall dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war, unlike recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
• Ukrainian long-range drone and missile attacks on Russian oil processing and energy facilities in major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg have caused severe damage, challenging Russia's military image and exposing vulnerabilities in its vast energy infrastructure.
• Russia's gasoline production dropped by 25% in June 2026 compared to the previous year, leading to widespread fuel rationing across many Russian regions, including major cities and distant Asian territories, signaling a deepening nationwide fuel crisis.
• Ukraine's introduction of advanced long-range weapons has made Russia's extensive and interconnected energy infrastructure difficult to defend, with critical supply routes to Crimea under constant attack, complicating Moscow's military logistics and control over the peninsula.
• The combined impact of Ukrainian strikes and falling global oil prices is straining Russia's economy and energy revenues, potentially turning the conflict into a prolonged challenge to Russia's economic and social stability, with uncertain long-term consequences.