Xi’s ‘death watch’ will become a global spectacle

Key Points:

• Geremie R. Barmé highlights the inherent dilemma faced by autocrats like Xi Jinping, where once in power, the countdown to their demise begins, with political transitions posing significant risks for autocratic regimes.
• Xi Jinping’s health and leadership pressures are causing concern, with visible signs of physical decline and a secretive political environment in China, making the future governance after Xi uncertain and potentially unstable.
• Xi faces a critical challenge in succession planning: naming a successor too early risks internal conflict, while waiting too long could create a dangerous power vacuum, especially as current Politburo members are too old to succeed him.
• Political uncertainty in China may lead to economic decline, rising social unrest, and increased state surveillance, with potential external risks including heightened tensions over Taiwan and possible military gambles if Xi feels threatened.
• The end of Xi’s era may resemble Mao’s tumultuous transition rather than Deng’s smooth handover, with the possibility of internal power struggles, military intervention, and political drama shaping China’s future leadership landscape.