10 years after Brexit: 7 prime ministers, a demographic slide, and a 6% GDP hit

Key Points:

• Keir Starmer announced his resignation as UK prime minister after less than two years in office, following significant Labour Party losses in local elections, with nominations for his successor opening next month.
• Andy Burnham, former mayor of Greater Manchester, is the likely Labour candidate to become the UK’s seventh prime minister in the past decade, a period marked by unprecedented political instability since the Brexit referendum.
• The UK has seen six prime ministers in ten years, each facing challenges such as Brexit failures, scandals, economic difficulties, and electoral defeats, contributing to ongoing political volatility and economic uncertainty.
• The UK is approaching a demographic turning point where deaths will exceed births from around 2026, leading to potential population decline unless offset by immigration, which is currently uncertain, posing long-term economic and fiscal challenges.
• Brexit has cost the UK economy 6-8% of GDP over the past decade, with declines in investment, employment, and productivity largely due to policy uncertainty and increased trade barriers, compounding the country’s economic difficulties alongside demographic shifts.