A $400,000 payout after Maduro's capture is putting prediction markets in the spotlight
AP News••general
Key Points:
- Prediction markets allow people to wager on a wide range of events, from sports to political outcomes, with recent controversy arising from a trader who made over $400,000 betting on the imminent downfall of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just before his capture.
- These markets operate through "event contracts" priced between $0 and $1, reflecting collective probabilities of events occurring, and proponents argue that financial stakes improve forecasting accuracy, though outcomes are not guaranteed.
- Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the space, with Polymarket recently returning to the U.S. after regulatory clearance, while Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange offering political and sports event contracts; meanwhile, major companies like DraftKings, FanDuel, Robinhood, and
