A new Bolsonaro could pull Brazil away from Europe - and toward Trump

Key Points:

• The European Union aims to strengthen ties with Brazil and finalize the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, capitalizing on former President Jair Bolsonaro's departure, but the upcoming Brazilian presidential election poses uncertainty.
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the polls against Jair Bolsonaro's son, Flávio Bolsonaro, whose potential presidency could strain EU-Brazil relations by aligning Brazil closer to the U.S. and reversing environmental protections.
• The EU-Mercosur trade deal, provisionally effective since May, faces delays in full approval amid concerns over environmental standards, agricultural disputes, and compliance with EU regulations, complicating ratification efforts.
• Agricultural issues remain sensitive, with EU restrictions on Brazilian exports causing friction and domestic pressure on Lula’s government from powerful agribusiness groups seeking concessions.
• Flávio Bolsonaro advocates for closer ties with the U.S. and greater flexibility within Mercosur, potentially challenging the EU’s strategic interests in Brazil and complicating the ratification of the trade agreement.